Russia Georgia War Not a Surprise

Another time I wish I was wrong.

Hey folks,

Once again, I have to sit back, take a breath, and think. This is another time that I WISH I was wrong. Another time when the signs were all there, and some just either failed to see them or purposely chose not to. Some are still not seeing what is right in front of them.

The Russia / Georgia War is NOT a surprise. They want it back. They do not like America being allies with Georgia. Nor do they like the fact that they CHOSE to break away from the Mother Country.

Back on October 30 2007, I posted this OPNTalk- Foiled Again By Those Pesky Americans, talking about then Russian President Vladimir Putin

So why am I telling you to remember that this village is a former Soviet republic ? We are all watching the New Russian President. He was part of the old Soviet Union, he is against American sanctions, and he seems to missing the old days of the Soviet Union. He needs watching to begin with.

On December 24, 2007 I warned you Putin, the Time's Person of the Year, wants to bring back the Soviet Union and the fact that there was a new Cold War possibility. I went into detail on this on January 20, 2008. OPNTalk- New Cold War?

Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky's comment did not mark a policy shift, military analysts said. Amid disputes with the West over security issues, it may have been meant as a warning that Russia is prepared to use its nuclear might.

You THINK?

"We do not intend to attack anyone, but we consider it necessary for all our partners in the world community to clearly understand ... that to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia and its allies, military forces will be used, including preventively, including with the use of nuclear weapons," Baluyevsky said at a military conference in a remark broadcast on state-run cable channel Vesti-24.

Translate that. “If we think you are planning to attack someone we do not want you to, we will nuke you before you get the chance.”

Also look at what Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky said here. He added "territorial integrity." Then on February 12, 2008, CNN reported that Russian bomber buzzes U.S. aircraft carrier.

Now we have this War, let's call it what it is, War, between Russian and Georgia. A US ally. I found this interesting from DW-Word.DE- Analysis: South Ossetian Conflict Will Cost Russia Dearly A German Website.

Russia's premier Vladimir Putin and US President George W Bush, arranged on different sides of the conflict, spoke with "one voice," according to Putin. "Everybody agrees -- nobody wants to see a war," the Russian leader said.

But such words fell flat as pro-Western President Mikheil Saakashvili, a close US ally, ordered a full-scale mobilization to re-take the separatist region and Russia deployed troops and fighter jets to "protect its citizens" against Georgia's "dirty venture."

Georgia, on the Black Sea coast between Turkey and Russia, was under Moscow's rule in their two centuries of shared Soviet history, but this influence has been challenged by the United States which is trying to win a foothold in the strategic Caucasus region.

The AFP - Russia seizes South Ossetia as wider conflict feared by Irakli Metreveli, tells of this situation having possibly even more dire consequences. The AFP reports it this way.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who is due in Tbilisi later Sunday to begin mediation, warned in an interview of a Balkan-like spiral of violence in the conflict between Russia and Georgia.

"We are facing an escalation of violence" that is "unacceptable at the doors of Europe," Kouchner told Le Parisien newspaper as he prepared to leave for the region to mediate with Moscow and Tbilisi.

"This reminds me all too much of other recent conflicts that have torn our continent apart, particularly in the Balkans," he said.

Georgia said it had withdrawn most of its troops from South Ossetia and claimed Moscow had brought in 10,000 extra troops as well as building up a force of armoured vehicles on the Russian side of the border with Georgia.

"We have left practically all of South Ossetia as an expression of goodwill and our willingness to stop military confrontation," Georgian National Security Council Secretary Alexander Lomaia told AFP.

"We have asked United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to mediate with the Russians, to transmit them our message," said Lomaia.

The White House responded using strong diplomatic language, warning Russia that its "disproportionate and dangerous escalation" of the conflict could significantly harm relations between Washington and Moscow.

The United States said Sunday that Russia's reaction to any Georgian withdrawal from South Ossetia would be a key test of the country's true intentions in the region.

President George W. Bush on Saturday had led a chorus of international calls to end the hostilities which observers fear might spread to other parts of the volatile Caucasus region.

Which it very well could. Ukraine is not happy.

The movement of Russia's naval fleet from their base in Ukraine to positions near Georgia also threatened to destabilise the region.

Ukraine's foreign ministry threatened to prevent the warships from returning to their base in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol.

A Russian press report claimed the battleships were preparing to implement a sea blockade on Georgia, but this was denied in Moscow.

South Ossetian authorities said in a statement that overnight shelling had killed 20 and wounded 150 people in the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, which Russian forces now control.

On Saturday, Russian aircraft had staged raids on the Georgian port of Poti and the city of Gori, where inhabitants said scores of people were killed.

Georgia's army of less than 25,000 men is confronting a Russian force which can count on more than one million troops and has dominance of both skies and sea.

On the diplomatic front, a meeting of the UN Security Council on Saturday failed to agree on a call for an immediate ceasefire.

European Union foreign ministers will hold a crisis meeting to discuss the bloc's response to conflict in the Caucasus on Wednesday in Brussels, an EU source said told AFP.

At the request of Poland, the EU presidency said it may subsequently convene an emergency European Council summit gathering heads of government and state.

South Ossetia broke from Georgia in the early 1990s. It has a population of 70,000, many of whom have been granted Russia passports.

Folks, this is NOT some little skirmish between two Countries. This is a War, declared by Russia. Poland, the Ukraine, France, Europe, and of course the US, are not happy about this at all. Georgia continues to attempt a ceasefire. They are attempting to end this conflict. According to the AP - Georgian troops retreat from breakaway province By DAVID NOWAK, Associated Press Writer

Georgian troops retreated from the breakaway province of South Ossetia on Sunday and their government pressed for a truce, overwhelmed by Russian firepower as the conflict threatened to set off a wider war.

Russia deployed a naval squadron off the coast of another of Georgia's separatist regions, Abkhazia, and its jets bombed the outskirts of Tblisi, the Georgian capital.

Georgia's Foreign Ministry said its soldiers were observing a cease-fire on orders of the president and declared the move in a note handed over to Russia's envoy to Tbilisi.

"Georgia expresses its readiness to immediately start negotiations with the Russian Federation on cease-fire and termination of hostilities," the ministry said in a statement.

A spokesman for the Russian Embassy confirmed the Georgian note was received; the Russian Foreign Ministry had no immediate response.

No immediate response? Yes they did. They continued bombing. They, in essence, said NO.

Russia has demanded that Georgia pull out its troops from South Ossetia as a condition to negotiate a cease-fire. It also urged Georgia to sign a pledge not to use force against South Ossetia as another condition for ending hostilities.

Which they did.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said that Moscow now needs to verify the Georgian withdrawal. "We must check all that. We don't trust the Georgian side," he said.

On Sunday, Russian jets raided a plant on the eastern outskirts of Tbilisi that builds Su-25 ground jets. The attack damaged runways but caused no casualties, said Georgia's Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili.

"We heard a plane go over and then a big explosion," said Malkhaz Chachanidze, a 41-year old ceramics artist whose house is located just outside the fence of the factory, which has been running since the Soviet era. "It woke us up, everything shook."

The risk of the conflict setting off a wider war increased when Russian-supported separatists in another breakaway region of Georgia, Abkhazia, launched air and artillery strikes on Georgian troops to drive them out of a small part of the province they control. Fifteen U.N. military observers were told to evacuate.

Both South Ossetia and Abkhazia have run their own affairs without international recognition since splitting from Georgia in the early 1990s and have built up ties with Moscow. Russia has granted its passports to most of their residents.

In yet another sign that the conflict could widen, Ukraine warned Russia on Sunday it could bar Russian navy ships from returning to their base in the Crimea because of their deployment to Georgia's coast.

President Bush called for an end to the Russian bombings and an immediate halt to the violence.

"The attacks are occurring in regions of Georgia far from the zone of conflict in South Ossetia. They mark a dangerous escalation in the crisis," Bush said in a statement to reporters while attending the Olympic Games in Beijing.

Karasin said the ships were sent toward Abkhazia as a deterrent.

"The deployment is quite natural. We don't want a repeat of what happened in South Ossetia," he said at a news conference.

The foreign ministers of France and Finland were to arrive in Georgia Sunday to discuss ways to end the conflict.

Russian jets have been roaming Georgia's skies since Friday. They raided several air bases and bombed the Black Sea port city of Poti, which has a sizable oil shipment facility. The Russian warplanes also struck near the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline which carries Caspian crude to the West, but no supply interruptions have been reported.

Georgia President Mikhail Saakashvili called it an "unprovoked brutal Russian invasion."

Which is what it is folks.

Jim Jeffrey, Bush's deputy national security adviser, warned "if the disproportionate and dangerous escalation on the Russian side continues, that this will have a significant long-term impact on U.S.-Russian relations."

A Russian raid on Gori near South Ossetia Saturday which apparently targeted a military base on the town's outskirts left numerous civilian casualties.

An Associated Press reporter who visited the town shortly after the strike saw several apartment buildings in ruins, some still on fire, and scores of dead bodies and bloodied civilians. The elderly, women and children were among the victims.

Russian officials said they weren't targeting civilians, but Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Georgia brought the airstrikes upon itself by bombing civilians and Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia. He warned that the small Caucasus country should expect more attacks.

"Whatever side is used to bomb civilians and the positions of peacekeepers, this side is not safe and they should know this," Lavrov said.

So they are saying they do not care about the civilians. That IS what he just said. Along with the fact there will be more attacks.

This is an interesting note.

Georgia borders the Black Sea between Turkey and Russia and was ruled by Moscow for most of the two centuries preceding the breakup of the Soviet Union. Today, Russia has approximately 30 times more people than Georgia and 240 times the area.

They want it back folks. They want it BACK. Of course, they blamed us.

Russia also laid much of the responsibility for ending the fighting on Washington, which has trained Georgian troops. Washington, in turned, blamed Russia.

Keep in mind that Putin WANTS the Old Soviet Union back. As I have been warning you about. They want all their territory back. They want to bring order back to the Russian Federation. They want unity the way they describe it. They also do not, have never, and will never like us. They also have very strong ties to Iran. These are dangerous times.
Peter

Sources:
OPNTalk- Foiled Again By Those Pesky Americans
OPNTalk- New Cold War?
AFP - Russia seizes South Ossetia as wider conflict feared
AP - Georgian troops retreat from breakaway province
DW-Word.DE- Analysis: South Ossetian Conflict Will Cost Russia Dearly