THIS May Be Why Rush is So Sure

Hey folks,

I told you yesterday that some see Hillary Clinton, uh sorry, Supreme Leader Clinton as a shoe in for President in 08. I told you that Rush said, "As we sit here today, Hillary Clinton has about an 80 percent chance of becoming President."

To tell you the truth, I was a little surprised about that. I’m not really ready to say this yet. One, like it or not, I’m not so sure that the country as a whole is even ready to vote for the first Female. I’m not sure that the country as a whole is ready to embrace Hillary. She is a very decisive person. Make no mistake about it, I do feel there is a very real chance that she will win. But I'm not sure it is 80 percent.

But then I came across this very interesting article by Ramussen Reports. Electoral Chaos: How Michael Bloomberg Could Deadlock Both the Electoral College and the House of Representatives.

Rumors abound that Michael Bloomberg might spend a billion dollars running for the White House as an Independent, putting him on a competitive footing with the major party candidates. That might make it possible for Bloomberg to win several states and prevent anybody from winning a majority of the Electoral College votes. The House of Representatives would then select a President, something that hasn't happened since 1824.

"The House of Representatives would then select a President, something that hasn't happened since 1824." Who do you think they would select? Starting to make sense now? Where does Bloomberg stand? What does he believe? Could he buy his way in? It’s not all bad news though.

The few political commentators who have considered this possibility dismiss its significance. They reason that since Democrats control the House, the Democratic candidate would automatically move into the White House. That assessment reflects a profound misunderstanding of the process outlined in the Constitution.

If no candidate wins a majority in the Electoral College, the top three candidates are submitted to the House of Representatives. Presumably, this would be a Democrat, a Republican, and Bloomberg.

The House would then vote, but the result would not be determined by the overall number of Representatives. According to the Constitution, each state gets to cast one vote? and a majority of all the states is required to select a President. That means a candidate needs to get the nod from 26 state delegations before moving into the White House.

Today, the Democrats control precisely 26 state delegations. Republicans control 21 and 3 are tied. But, many are closely divided. If the Democrats lose a single state delegation, they lose the majority needed to select a President on their own.

But then again they could just promise more Pork. Buy the vote. They have done that before. Why not?

In at least 12 state delegations currently controlled by Democrats, the loss of a single representative would either shift control to the Republicans or create a deadlock. If the Democrats lose just a single net seat in any one of those twelve states, they lose control of the ability to select the next President in the House.

UH, OK, are you wondering what happens then? What happens in the event of a deadlock? Anyone?

If a Bloomberg campaign resonates with the public enough to win several states; his candidacy could create a deadlock in both the Electoral College and the House of Representatives. Certainly his strategists would recognize this and target the most vulnerable Democrats in key states to assure such an outcome.

What happens if nobody controls a majority of the state delegations in the House? It's hard to tell, but whatever happens would be studied by historians and political scientists for generations.

There would certainly be an unprecedented and intense period of negotiations between Election Day and January 20. A deal could be reached prior to the Electoral College voting. Or, it could go to the House (with the Senate called upon to select a Vice President).

The possibilities are too numerous and speculative to consider here, but it is hard to overstate the leverage that Bloomberg would hold. If he finishes a strong second in the national popular vote, that leverage would be limited only by his desire to use it. There is even a decent chance he could wind up as President.

Glad we cleared that up.

To give just one extreme example of the possible negotiating tactics, remember that the vote for Vice President is held separately from the vote for President. If Bloomberg really played hardball, his team could cast their Electoral Votes for, say, the Republican Vice-Presidential candidate. By electing a Republican Vice-President, Bloomberg would put tremendous pressure on the Democrats to negotiate with him. Why? Because if the House remains deadlocked on January 20, the already elected Republican Vice President would assume the role of President.

Well this could be interesting.

This, of course, is not a likely scenario. But, if Michael Bloomberg is truly serious about investing a billion dollars in a Presidential campaign--and if he can find a message that truly resonates with the American people--he has the potential to fundamentally alter Election 2008 in ways we can't begin to imagine.

Whatever happened to "You could be President someday."? Only if you are a Billionaire. Or have millions to throw away. There has to be a better way. We should be electing Presidents based on ideas, and for what they say they will accomplish, NOT who has the most toys {Money} wins.

Just something to keep an eye on.
Peter