UPDATE: Two Deaths? Weakening in Mexico, US growing Weary
Hey folks,
Here is an interesting article from the Baltimore Sun - Mild flu could hit harder in the fall Health officials watch S. Africa, Argentina for clues on next wave By Stephanie Desmon stephanie.desmon@baltsun.com May 6, 2009
The number of swine flu cases in Mexico is stabilizing. In the U.S., though more people are being diagnosed with the virus, cases have been mostly mild, claiming two lives. And health officials have backed off on closing schools where students are sick.
Yeah that makes sense. Right?
It may seem as though the threat of the virus known as H1N1 has lessened. But infectious disease experts and public health officials agree: The worst is likely still to come. In pandemics of the past, flu that arrived in the spring hit harder come fall, when influenza season returned.
"If you were just to bet on the odds, you would bet H1N1 would abate in the summer and return in the winter," said Dr. William Schaffner, chairman of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Tennessee.
"The illness produced, so far, is really quite mild. But the question would be - as it circulates among humans in the Southern Hemisphere [in their winter flu season] - could it pick up a virulence gene ... that is capable of producing severe disease?
"Influenza is surprising. Its behavior is very difficult to predict."
Health officials are looking to countries such as South Africa and Argentina to see how their flu seasons progress, whether swine flu circulates there and whether the virus mutates into a nastier strain. No matter, experts are bracing for a rocky fall and winter.
An ordinary flu season kills 36,000 in the U.S. each year, hospitalizing hundreds of thousands and sickening millions. Those figures are based upon an illness that many people are immune to, either through annual vaccination or through immunity acquired by getting the flu in a previous winter.
But humans have never encountered this virus, and there is no immunity to it. Even if the swine flu stays mild, "everyone's susceptible," said Andrew Pekosz, who studies the flu at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Of the 36,000 figure, he said, "we can easily see that double: twice as many hospitalizations and twice as many deaths."
If the strain becomes more virulent, those statistics could be even worse.
Federal and global health officials, knowing that, are moving quickly to develop a vaccine against the swine flu. At the same time, vaccine makers are already under the gun manufacturing the seasonal flu vaccine that also will be ready by fall.
For now, no decision has been made as to whether a swine flu vaccine would be mass-produced and widely distributed. But the scientific process, which takes time, is under way even as health officials learn more each day about the H1N1 virus.
"I think we should be moving ahead as fast as possible with the vaccine," Dr. James D. Cherry, a pediatric infectious diseases expert at the University of California-Los Angeles, told a group of pediatricians at a conference Monday in Baltimore. "This is real. ... This is going to happen. We need vaccination to control this. Antivirals [medication] will not be enough to control this."
He also worries that people who come down with the flu will be more susceptible to secondary infections that could be lethal.
Researchers know that very little influenza circulates in the summer. There are many schools of thought as to why (more time spent outdoors, perhaps), but one reason seems to be that the virus transmits better from person to person in low humidity and cooler temperatures.
Officials still don't know a lot about the new virus. What they do know is that the strain is not as deadly, for now, as the Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918 that killed so many millions - though that flu started out fairly mild in the spring and returned with a vengeance during flu season.
At this point, officials with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have seen very little mutation. If the virus remains stable, a vaccine would likely be effective.
But Pekosz said the longer the flu strain stays in circulation, the more chance it has to change and become better at infecting people and better at making them sicker. It is unknown how the virus will interact with human proteins and every time it enters a new person, there is a chance that it will evolve to create a more serious illness.
"The prudent measure is to prevent exposure if at all possible," he said.
But, he added, "the people who are getting infected now ... would most likely be immune to any second wave coming through."
Some even wonder if it wouldn't make sense to expose healthy people to the virus while it is mild, rather than wait for it to possibly turn lethal come fall. While that makes sense biologically, experts say, having "swine flu parties" modeled on the "chicken pox parties" of the 1970s and 1980s where children were intentionally exposed to that disease, would be irresponsible, given how little is known about how the virus will behave.
You THINK?
"The 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus is likely to circulate widely in our communities; if not now then almost certainly in the fall," the CDC's acting director Dr. Richard Besser and Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said in a statement.
"We all have a special responsibility during this time to protect ourselves and protect our neighbors and others in our community by behaving responsibly and doing whatever we can to minimize the spread of disease. A virus that may only cause sniffles and mild inconvenience in one person may put the next into the hospital."
The CDC used to begin each flu season with a prediction of its severity, Schaffner said. Agency officials no longer do that.
"The crystal balls remain in the drawer," he said. "We don't take them out anymore."
CDC: Update
The ongoing outbreak of novel influenza A (H1N1) continues to expand in the United States and internationally. CDC expects that more cases, more hospitalizations and more deaths from this outbreak will occur over the coming days and weeks.
CDC continues to take aggressive action to respond to an expanding outbreak caused by novel H1N1 flu.
CDC’s response goals are to:
Reduce transmission and illness severity, andProvide information to help health care providers, public health officials and the public address the challenges posed by this emergency. CDC is issuing updated interim guidance daily in response to the rapidly evolving situation. This includes updated interim guidance for clinicians on how to identify and care for people who are sick with novel H1N1 flu now that more widespread illness has been detected in the United States. CDC recommends that testing and antiviral treatment be prioritized for those with severe respiratory illness and those at highest risk of complications from seasonal influenza. This includes children younger than 5 years old, pregnant women, people with chronic medical conditions and weakened immune systems, and people 65 years and older. In addition, CDC has provided information for the public on what to do if they develop flu-like symptoms.
CDC has completed deployment of 25 percent of the supplies in the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) to all states in the continental United States. These supplies and medicines will help states and U.S. territories respond to the outbreak. In addition, the Federal Government and manufacturers have begun the process of developing a vaccine against the novel H1N1 flu virus.
Response actions are aggressive, but they may vary across states and communities depending on local circumstances. Communities, businesses, places of worship, schools and individuals can all take action to slow the spread of this outbreak. People who are sick are urged to stay home from work or school and to avoid contact with others, except to seek medical care. This action can avoid spreading illness further.
Alabama 4
Arizona 17
California 49
Colorado 6
Connecticut 2
Delaware 20
Florida 5
Georgia 1
Idaho 1
Illinois 82
Indiana 3
Iowa 1
Kansas 2
Kentucky* 1
Louisiana 7
Maine 1
Maryland 4
Massachusetts 6
Michigan 2
Minnesota 1
Missouri 1
Nebraska 1
Nevada 1
New Hampshire 1
New Jersey 6
New Mexico 1
New York 90
North Carolina 1
Ohio 3
Oregon 15
Pennsylvania 1
Rhode Island 1
South Carolina 16
Tennessee 2
Texas 41 1
Utah 1
Virginia 3
Wisconsin 3
TOTAL (38) 403 cases 1 death
So OK. I have a question. The first Paragraph in the Baltimore Sun Article says this. "In the U.S., though more people are being diagnosed with the virus, cases have been mostly mild, claiming two lives." Where was the second? Was that just a typo? Anyway, I hope if there was another, it should be updated soon. This CDC Update was as of May 5, 2009 at 11:55 PM.
Take the necessary precautions. Be well, and I will see you tomorrow.
Peter
Hey folks,
Here is an interesting article from the Baltimore Sun - Mild flu could hit harder in the fall Health officials watch S. Africa, Argentina for clues on next wave By Stephanie Desmon stephanie.desmon@baltsun.com May 6, 2009The number of swine flu cases in Mexico is stabilizing. In the U.S., though more people are being diagnosed with the virus, cases have been mostly mild, claiming two lives. And health officials have backed off on closing schools where students are sick.
Yeah that makes sense. Right?
It may seem as though the threat of the virus known as H1N1 has lessened. But infectious disease experts and public health officials agree: The worst is likely still to come. In pandemics of the past, flu that arrived in the spring hit harder come fall, when influenza season returned.
"If you were just to bet on the odds, you would bet H1N1 would abate in the summer and return in the winter," said Dr. William Schaffner, chairman of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Tennessee.
"The illness produced, so far, is really quite mild. But the question would be - as it circulates among humans in the Southern Hemisphere [in their winter flu season] - could it pick up a virulence gene ... that is capable of producing severe disease?
"Influenza is surprising. Its behavior is very difficult to predict."
Health officials are looking to countries such as South Africa and Argentina to see how their flu seasons progress, whether swine flu circulates there and whether the virus mutates into a nastier strain. No matter, experts are bracing for a rocky fall and winter.
An ordinary flu season kills 36,000 in the U.S. each year, hospitalizing hundreds of thousands and sickening millions. Those figures are based upon an illness that many people are immune to, either through annual vaccination or through immunity acquired by getting the flu in a previous winter.
But humans have never encountered this virus, and there is no immunity to it. Even if the swine flu stays mild, "everyone's susceptible," said Andrew Pekosz, who studies the flu at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Of the 36,000 figure, he said, "we can easily see that double: twice as many hospitalizations and twice as many deaths."
If the strain becomes more virulent, those statistics could be even worse.
Federal and global health officials, knowing that, are moving quickly to develop a vaccine against the swine flu. At the same time, vaccine makers are already under the gun manufacturing the seasonal flu vaccine that also will be ready by fall.
For now, no decision has been made as to whether a swine flu vaccine would be mass-produced and widely distributed. But the scientific process, which takes time, is under way even as health officials learn more each day about the H1N1 virus.
"I think we should be moving ahead as fast as possible with the vaccine," Dr. James D. Cherry, a pediatric infectious diseases expert at the University of California-Los Angeles, told a group of pediatricians at a conference Monday in Baltimore. "This is real. ... This is going to happen. We need vaccination to control this. Antivirals [medication] will not be enough to control this."
He also worries that people who come down with the flu will be more susceptible to secondary infections that could be lethal.
Researchers know that very little influenza circulates in the summer. There are many schools of thought as to why (more time spent outdoors, perhaps), but one reason seems to be that the virus transmits better from person to person in low humidity and cooler temperatures.
Officials still don't know a lot about the new virus. What they do know is that the strain is not as deadly, for now, as the Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918 that killed so many millions - though that flu started out fairly mild in the spring and returned with a vengeance during flu season.
At this point, officials with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have seen very little mutation. If the virus remains stable, a vaccine would likely be effective.
But Pekosz said the longer the flu strain stays in circulation, the more chance it has to change and become better at infecting people and better at making them sicker. It is unknown how the virus will interact with human proteins and every time it enters a new person, there is a chance that it will evolve to create a more serious illness.
"The prudent measure is to prevent exposure if at all possible," he said.
But, he added, "the people who are getting infected now ... would most likely be immune to any second wave coming through."
Some even wonder if it wouldn't make sense to expose healthy people to the virus while it is mild, rather than wait for it to possibly turn lethal come fall. While that makes sense biologically, experts say, having "swine flu parties" modeled on the "chicken pox parties" of the 1970s and 1980s where children were intentionally exposed to that disease, would be irresponsible, given how little is known about how the virus will behave.
You THINK?
"The 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus is likely to circulate widely in our communities; if not now then almost certainly in the fall," the CDC's acting director Dr. Richard Besser and Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said in a statement.
"We all have a special responsibility during this time to protect ourselves and protect our neighbors and others in our community by behaving responsibly and doing whatever we can to minimize the spread of disease. A virus that may only cause sniffles and mild inconvenience in one person may put the next into the hospital."
The CDC used to begin each flu season with a prediction of its severity, Schaffner said. Agency officials no longer do that.
"The crystal balls remain in the drawer," he said. "We don't take them out anymore."
CDC: Update
The ongoing outbreak of novel influenza A (H1N1) continues to expand in the United States and internationally. CDC expects that more cases, more hospitalizations and more deaths from this outbreak will occur over the coming days and weeks.
CDC continues to take aggressive action to respond to an expanding outbreak caused by novel H1N1 flu.
CDC’s response goals are to:
Reduce transmission and illness severity, andProvide information to help health care providers, public health officials and the public address the challenges posed by this emergency. CDC is issuing updated interim guidance daily in response to the rapidly evolving situation. This includes updated interim guidance for clinicians on how to identify and care for people who are sick with novel H1N1 flu now that more widespread illness has been detected in the United States. CDC recommends that testing and antiviral treatment be prioritized for those with severe respiratory illness and those at highest risk of complications from seasonal influenza. This includes children younger than 5 years old, pregnant women, people with chronic medical conditions and weakened immune systems, and people 65 years and older. In addition, CDC has provided information for the public on what to do if they develop flu-like symptoms.
CDC has completed deployment of 25 percent of the supplies in the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) to all states in the continental United States. These supplies and medicines will help states and U.S. territories respond to the outbreak. In addition, the Federal Government and manufacturers have begun the process of developing a vaccine against the novel H1N1 flu virus.
Response actions are aggressive, but they may vary across states and communities depending on local circumstances. Communities, businesses, places of worship, schools and individuals can all take action to slow the spread of this outbreak. People who are sick are urged to stay home from work or school and to avoid contact with others, except to seek medical care. This action can avoid spreading illness further.
Alabama 4
Arizona 17
California 49
Colorado 6
Connecticut 2
Delaware 20
Florida 5
Georgia 1
Idaho 1
Illinois 82
Indiana 3
Iowa 1
Kansas 2
Kentucky* 1
Louisiana 7
Maine 1
Maryland 4
Massachusetts 6
Michigan 2
Minnesota 1
Missouri 1
Nebraska 1
Nevada 1
New Hampshire 1
New Jersey 6
New Mexico 1
New York 90
North Carolina 1
Ohio 3
Oregon 15
Pennsylvania 1
Rhode Island 1
South Carolina 16
Tennessee 2
Texas 41 1
Utah 1
Virginia 3
Wisconsin 3
TOTAL (38) 403 cases 1 death
So OK. I have a question. The first Paragraph in the Baltimore Sun Article says this. "In the U.S., though more people are being diagnosed with the virus, cases have been mostly mild, claiming two lives." Where was the second? Was that just a typo? Anyway, I hope if there was another, it should be updated soon. This CDC Update was as of May 5, 2009 at 11:55 PM.
Take the necessary precautions. Be well, and I will see you tomorrow.
Peter
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