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Friday, December 16, 2011

Forecasters Can't Predict?

"Then how are we suppose to accept the fact they can tell us how the temperatures and weather will be 10 to 20 years from now? Like you say Pete, it's all just silly."

Hey folks,

Happy Friday to ya. Glad you stopped by. Yes, I'm feeling much better and still trying to get back to normal. BG has a GREAT point here. It's what I've been telling you for years. Forget the Hurricane stuff, the Weather People can't tell you without doubt if it will Rain Today or not. Do not get me wrong, I LOVE people like Kait Parker from WPTV. {Smile} I have nothing against Weather People. But it is all commonsense.

EVERY year, for whatever reason, the Weather People come out of the Woodwork. It's going to be an "Over Active Hurricane Season" this year like we have never seen before. Between 1 and 20 major storms. Between 1 and 10 named Hurricanes. Between 1 and 5 will hit land. ETC. EVERY year, they revise it multiple times.

Now do not misunderstand me. If one is coming, I encourage you to tune in everyday and watch the Tracking. If you are in the Track, GET OUT OF IT. One is all it takes to kill, destroy, and wreak havoc on a lot of people's lives. But to take the early Forecasts to heart IS just Silly.

I think what is amazing to BG and others that saw this, is that the Media is actually telling the truth. These two guys should be commended. What BG is talking about is this. It's from The OttawaCitizen - Hurricane predictors admit they can’t predict hurricanes December forecasts are too unreliable, experts say By Tom Spears December 12, 2011

Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, revered like rock stars in Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice because it doesn’t work.

William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no value.

The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities as hurricane seasons approach — a much more cautious approach. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do next.
EXACTLY. We get Big Storms. We get little Storms. We get active Seasons, inactive Seasons. We get Damaging Storms, and YEARS pass without one touching Land. It's Mother Nature, if you will. It Natural Cycles.

Gray, recently joined by Klotzbach, has been known for decades for an annual forecast of how many hurricanes can be expected each official hurricane season (which runs from June to November.) Southerners hang on his words, as even a mid-sized hurricane can cause billions in damage.

Last week, the pair dropped this announcement out of a clear, blue sky:

“We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year ... Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.”
So again they can and should be commended. They are telling you the TRUTH. Even if they SAY in December, NO Storms, ONE is all it takes. People get relaxed and BANG. If they say 20? Then NOTHING? Like I said, if one is out there, we can see it. If it comes our way, we will know in advance, about 48 to 24 hours, within reason, where it may go. But to say how many and how bad before the First one starts, is simply GUESSING. They either create unnecessary panic, or unreasonable assurances.

But I think BG is talking about Global Warming. Of course. If we can not accept what they tell us the Weather will be like next week, how do they justify telling us that the World will turn into a big ball of Fire in 20 years. Haven't they already told us this? We have 20 years, like 30 years ago? We have 10 like 20 years ago? Seas will rise? We are in a cooling Cycle. We have been since 98. So we are not even WARMING any more, hence the Name Change. But, you know, the Religion of GW still has it's Followers.
Peter

LINK:
The OttawaCitizen - Hurricane predictors admit they can’t predict hurricanes December forecasts are too unreliable, experts say

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