Forecasters Can't Predict?

"Then how are we suppose to accept the fact they can tell us how the temperatures and weather will be 10 to 20 years from now? Like you say Pete, it's all just silly."

Hey folks,

Happy Friday to ya. Glad you stopped by. Yes, I'm feeling much better and still trying to get back to normal. BG has a GREAT point here. It's what I've been telling you for years. Forget the Hurricane stuff, the Weather People can't tell you without doubt if it will Rain Today or not. Do not get me wrong, I LOVE people like Kait Parker from WPTV. {Smile} I have nothing against Weather People. But it is all commonsense.

EVERY year, for whatever reason, the Weather People come out of the Woodwork. It's going to be an "Over Active Hurricane Season" this year like we have never seen before. Between 1 and 20 major storms. Between 1 and 10 named Hurricanes. Between 1 and 5 will hit land. ETC. EVERY year, they revise it multiple times.

Now do not misunderstand me. If one is coming, I encourage you to tune in everyday and watch the Tracking. If you are in the Track, GET OUT OF IT. One is all it takes to kill, destroy, and wreak havoc on a lot of people's lives. But to take the early Forecasts to heart IS just Silly.

I think what is amazing to BG and others that saw this, is that the Media is actually telling the truth. These two guys should be commended. What BG is talking about is this. It's from The OttawaCitizen - Hurricane predictors admit they can’t predict hurricanes December forecasts are too unreliable, experts say By Tom Spears December 12, 2011

Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, revered like rock stars in Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice because it doesn’t work.

William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no value.

The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities as hurricane seasons approach — a much more cautious approach. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do next.

EXACTLY. We get Big Storms. We get little Storms. We get active Seasons, inactive Seasons. We get Damaging Storms, and YEARS pass without one touching Land. It's Mother Nature, if you will. It Natural Cycles.

Gray, recently joined by Klotzbach, has been known for decades for an annual forecast of how many hurricanes can be expected each official hurricane season (which runs from June to November.) Southerners hang on his words, as even a mid-sized hurricane can cause billions in damage.

Last week, the pair dropped this announcement out of a clear, blue sky:

“We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year ... Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.”

So again they can and should be commended. They are telling you the TRUTH. Even if they SAY in December, NO Storms, ONE is all it takes. People get relaxed and BANG. If they say 20? Then NOTHING? Like I said, if one is out there, we can see it. If it comes our way, we will know in advance, about 48 to 24 hours, within reason, where it may go. But to say how many and how bad before the First one starts, is simply GUESSING. They either create unnecessary panic, or unreasonable assurances.

But I think BG is talking about Global Warming. Of course. If we can not accept what they tell us the Weather will be like next week, how do they justify telling us that the World will turn into a big ball of Fire in 20 years. Haven't they already told us this? We have 20 years, like 30 years ago? We have 10 like 20 years ago? Seas will rise? We are in a cooling Cycle. We have been since 98. So we are not even WARMING any more, hence the Name Change. But, you know, the Religion of GW still has it's Followers.
Peter

LINK:
The OttawaCitizen - Hurricane predictors admit they can’t predict hurricanes December forecasts are too unreliable, experts say

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Hurricane Irene Visits NY, Obama is Toast

Preview for Sunday 082811

Hey folks,

As we speak, Hurricane Irene is visiting NYC. According to Reuters - Ferocious Hurricane Irene batters New York By Ben Berkowitz and Dan Trotta Reuters – 1 hr 21 mins ago

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Hurricane Irene battered New York with ferocious winds and driving rain on Sunday, shutting down the U.S. financial capital and most populous city, halting mass transit and causing massive power blackouts as it churned slowly northward along the eastern seaboard.

According to another report I saw, like 2 million people are without Power. But they are not alone.

Irene, still a menacing 480-mile (780-km)-wide hurricane, was enveloping major towns and cities in the northeast, hugging the Atlantic coast and threatening dangerous floods and surging tides.

From the Carolinas to Maine, tens of millions of people were in the path of Irene, which howled ashore in North Carolina at daybreak on Saturday, dumping torrential rain, felling trees and knocking out power.

After NYC, Irene is expected to remain a Hurricane and head even further North into the Boston area. She is not just some little Weather Event. Irene is a Killer. According to this report...

At least nine deaths were reported in North Carolina, Virginia and Florida. Several million people were under evacuation orders on the U.S. East Coast.

So our thoughts and Prayers are with those that have lost loved ones and those currently in the Path of this Storm. I'll update you when more information becomes available. Glad we missed this one. Or rather, this one missed us.

Coming right up today?

Do Not Deport? Pay Up.
Can't Concentrate? Join The Club
DLA For Sunday 082811
IWA For Sunday 082811

So did you catch this? This goes out to all my friends out there that think Obama is STILL unbeatable. Even the Libs know that he is Toast. As it stands right now.

Political analyst and Democratic pollster Doug Schoen tells Newsmax that President Barack Obama is in “deep trouble,” and if the election were held today he “would be a one-term president.”

BY A LANDSLIDE! Seriously. NOBODY is happy with him. Why do you think he is going off the deep end trying to get the "Extreme Vote" In other words, he refuses to enforce Laws on the Books in reference to Gays, Illegal Aliens, and announced that he will not longer Deport. He is actively Suing States that are getting a handle on their Finances by taking on Unions. He is going after those that claim "He ain't Liberal Enough." Yeah I know, but he is. Hell, Doug Schoen is a Lib. He Co-Wrote a Book with Scott Rasmussen entitled “Mad As Hell: How the Tea Party Movement Is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System.”

Three polls over a recent 8-day period have shown Texas Gov. Perry enjoying a significant lead over former front-runner Mitt Romney, with two of the polls putting Perry ahead by double digits.

In an exclusive interview with Newsmax.TV, Schoen was asked what he thinks of the poll results considering that Perry has been formally in the race for only about two weeks.

“I think it shows how dissatisfied the Republican electorate is with the other seven or eight candidates, and how they’re looking for a fresh face to take on President Obama,” he says.

Questions have been raised about Perry’s ability to garner support among moderate Republicans. Schoen comments: “In the primaries he doesn’t really need moderate Republicans because the bulk of the voters are conservative, but in the general election he’ll certainly have to broaden his appeal.”

{Sigh}You know folks, no never mind. Now is not the time. I have some thoughts on Perry, but I would rather get to know him a bit more before I comment. Anyway, you can tell Schoen is not happy about this.

One recent poll pitting Obama against Perry shows the two in a dead heat. Schoen agrees that Perry is a “formidable” candidate, but cautions: “I think this poll reflects more the weakness of Obama than the strength of Governor Perry. It remains to be seen if Perry develops the kind of broad-based appeal he’ll need to win the presidency.

“Right now it looks like a Perry-Obama race, but a few months ago it looked like Donald Trump was the front–runner, then Mitt Romney, then Michele Bachmann, so anything can happen in this election.”

Schoen was asked, given Perry’s strong showing so far, if it is too early to say Obama is in trouble.

“I think Barack Obama is in deep trouble,” Schoen declares.

“At this point he is being hurt and hurt seriously by the weak economy. He’s going to have a jobs speech in September. He’s going to talk about revitalizing the economy. It’s anyone’s guess if that will make an impact. But as we sit here today, bottom line, I think you’d have to say the economy is a dramatic drag on his presidency.

“I think he would be a one-term president if the election were held today.”

Get this. Remember what I have been telling you about Unions are nothing more than a Funnel of Money into the Democrat Party? Well, now THEY are mad too.

Angry that Democrats are ignoring union issues, AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka has announced that the nation's largest labor federation is cutting its ties with the Democratic Party and President Barack Obama heading into 2012, and instead it will set up a super PAC to pick and support its own candidates.

Asked if this is a huge blow to Obama, Schoen responds: “Absolutely. Obama needs to get labor back and I think he’ll be courting them furiously in the weeks and months to come.”

Like I said, he lost most of the Normal Votes. Those squishy Republicans and RINOS, Independents, and even some Sane Democrats. He NEEDS the Extreme Vote. He needs the Kooks and the Far Left Looney Base. That's not enough for him to win, maybe about 20 Percent of the American Population, but he can't Win without them. Also if he loses the Unions, where will all the money come from to pay people to Intimidate Voters at the Polls and mess with Ballots? {Smile}

Oh, you know what this is. You know WHO this is. I'll be right back.
Peter

Sources:
Reuters - Ferocious Hurricane Irene batters New York
Newsmax.com - Schoen: If Election Held Today, Obama Would Lose